Speed Figures & Handicapping in Horse Racing — Beyer, Equibase & TimeForm Explained

What Are Speed Figures?

A speed figure is a single number that represents how fast a horse ran in a race, adjusted for the track variant — the difference in track speed on a given day compared to the average for that track. Without adjustment, comparing raw time between races at different tracks, on different days, or in different conditions would be misleading — a fast time on a very fast track surface (called a 'speed-favouring' day) is not comparable to the same time on a slow or rain-affected surface. Speed figures account for these variations, producing a standardised number that allows meaningful cross-track, cross-condition comparisons. A horse earning a speed figure of 105 at Santa Anita and 103 at Belmont Park has performed at approximately the same level in both races, regardless of the different track surfaces and conditions.

Beyer Speed Figures: The US Standard

Andrew Beyer's speed figures, published in Daily Racing Form (DRF) since 1992, are the most widely used handicapping tool in North American horse racing. Beyer figures are calculated from final time (for dirt races primarily) adjusted for track variant — a proprietary calculation based on the race day's average time compared to the historical par time for that track and distance. Scale: a typical Beyer Figure for a Grade 1 Kentucky Derby-calibre horse ranges from 105–115. A high-quality allowance horse earns 85–95. A maiden winner typically runs 60–75 in their first start. A Beyer of 120+ is elite — only a handful of horses in any generation earn figures that high. Key limitation: Beyer Figures are primarily designed for dirt racing in the US — turf figures are available but considered less reliable due to the variable nature of grass courses.

Equibase Speed Ratings: An Alternative Framework

Equibase Speed Ratings are published by Equibase Company LLC — the industry-standard data provider for North American racing — and appear on the official program at many racetracks alongside DRF's Beyer Figures. Equibase ratings use a different scale and methodology than Beyer: they adjust for both time and distance using track-specific par times for each class level (maiden, claiming, allowance, stakes). A difference of 5–8 points between Equibase and Beyer for the same race is normal — the scales are not directly comparable. TimeformUS — a US subsidiary of the British Timeform organisation — produces its own speed and performance ratings using a pace-analysis framework, available on TwinSpires and other platforms. Multiple figure sources exist: experienced handicappers use Beyer as a primary tool and cross-reference with Equibase, Ragozin Sheets, or TimeformUS to identify outlier opinions.

TimeForm Ratings: The UK/Ireland Standard

TimeForm, founded by Phil Bull in Halifax in 1948, is the authoritative performance rating system for British and Irish thoroughbred racing. A TimeForm rating — expressed as a number in pounds (lb) of weight — represents the horse's current assessed ability. Scale: 130+ is elite (near-Arc de Triomphe winning quality); 120+ is a genuine Group 1 horse; 110–120 is Group 2–3 quality; 100–110 is Listed race quality; 90–100 is high-class handicapper. TimeForm also publishes qualitative assessments: a 'p' symbol indicates a horse is likely to improve; a 'd' indicates a proven tendency to be temperamental or not try consistently. TimeForm Daily Ratings are published for every race in Britain, Ireland, and internationally — the 'Topspeed' calculation is the TimeForm equivalent of a Beyer Figure (a pure time-based figure), while the overall rating incorporates analyst judgement about race conditions and merit beyond raw speed.

Pace Analysis: Beyond Speed Figures

Speed figures alone do not capture the full picture of a horse's running style and how the pace of the race affects performance. Pace analysis — the assessment of early, middle, and final fractions of a race — is a critical complementary tool. A horse that earns a high speed figure after stalking a very fast pace (burning out the front runners) is demonstrating different quality than a horse that sets its own fast pace throughout. Quirin Speed Points (or variant systems) quantify a horse's typical early pace profile: a high Quirin Point horse likely contests the early lead; a zero-point horse is a confirmed closer. In a race where all the early-speed horses are likely to duel for the lead at fast fractions, betting the closer becomes a pace-informed decision independent of the speed figures — the front runners are likely to set each other up for the closing horse, even if the closer's speed figure is slightly below the leaders.

Using Speed Figures in Combination with Other Factors

The limitation of any single-metric handicapping approach: speed figures quantify past performance but cannot predict future performance reliably as a standalone tool. Professional handicappers use figures as a starting point — the horse with consistently the highest figures in a race is the logical early favourite — then layer other factors to identify where the figure-based assessment over- or under-states a horse's chances. Class: a horse dropping from Grade 1 to allowance competition after a series of 95–98 Beyer Figures may be facing a class level where 88–90 is competitive — the figure-based horse is still likely to win. Trainer statistics: a trainer who consistently produces horses with improving figures in their second and third starts after layoffs has a meaningful edge over a trainer whose horses need multiple starts to return to form. Form trajectory: a horse running 80, 85, 92 in three consecutive races is on an improving trajectory that makes a 95 in the next race more probable than the 92 alone suggests.